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Kalyani Forge Ltd

| Q4 FY26 Earnings Conference Call

BULLISH SENTIMENT

Report Source

9th Jun 26

Summary : Kalyani Forge achieved record profitability and sustained high EBITDA margins, driven by strategic shift to high-value OEM products, new EV orders, and operational efficiency, while managing increased debt and working capital.

Management Perspective positive : We're very happy to share that we achieved a record high profit after tax for the entire year. We are quite happy with this result, and more confident of achieving more on the EBITDA front. We are targeting 20% EBITDA margin, which we hope to reach.

Concall Report Analysis & Insights

Business Overview

  1. Kalyani Forge achieved record high profit after tax for FY26.
  2. FY26 PAT was Rs. 9.32 crores, highest in 14 years.
  3. Q4 EBITDA margin reached 15.2%, second consecutive quarter.
  4. Core product groups are engine, driveline, and axle components.
  5. Phased out Rs. 40 crores of non-profitable business in FY26.

Future Growth Prospects

  1. Secured 3 major order wins in Q4, ramping up from Q1 FY27.
  2. New EV high-volume axle business worth Rs. 20 crores annual revenue.
  3. 60% of FY27 CAPEX allocated to new business and growth areas.
  4. Targeting 20% EBITDA margin by end of next financial year.
  5. Focus on profitable growth, cash conversion cycle reduction, ROCE improvement.

Management Insights

  1. Achieved record high profit after tax and sustained 15% EBITDA margin.
  2. Improved ROCE from 14% in Q1 FY26 to 18% in Q4.
  3. Focusing on core OEM customers and high-volume, high-margin products.
  4. Implementing operational efficiency and cost optimization initiatives.
  5. Strengthening supply chain and raw material planning systems.

Signs of Skepticism

  1. Q4 interest cost was low due to capitalization, not a sustained trend.
  2. Q3 PAT was near zero, Q4 PAT boosted by deferred tax reversal.
  3. Receivables increased faster than sales, stretching working capital.
  4. Order book number for new business remained same as Q3.

Risk Factors

  1. Forward-looking statements involve inherent risks and uncertainties.
  2. Debt-to-equity ratio increased due to growth CAPEX and working capital.
  3. Cash conversion cycle peaked at 176 days in Q2, now improving.
  4. Phasing out non-profitable businesses can impact short-term revenue.
  5. Deferred tax effects can impact quarterly PAT calculations.

Good To Know

  1. Reclassified dyes and toolings inventory into fixed assets for better policy.
  2. Vriddhi Council projects focus on supply chain, cost reduction, efficiency.
  3. New Plant Engineering vertical aims to improve plant layouts and architecture.
  4. Clean Audit Roadmap moved to Phase 2, hired external consultant.
  5. Company offers plant visits for interested shareholders.

Key Drivers

  1. New high-volume EV orders.
  2. Sustained 15% EBITDA margin.
  3. Strategic CAPEX for growth.
  4. Operational efficiency initiatives.

Key Analyst Discussions

Competitive Environment

  1. Focusing on OEMs provides better pricing and margins.
  2. Kalyani Forge is unique in offering engine, driveline, axle components to OEMs.
  3. New order wins are from OEM and Tier 1 customers in axle segment.

Financial Highlights

  1. Interest cost in Q4 was low due to capitalization of term loan for CAPEX.
  2. Maximum sales at current fixed asset level could be Rs. 300 crores.
  3. Receivables increased due to warehousing commitments for key OEMs.
  4. Targeting cash conversion cycle of 120-130 days from current levels.
  5. Other income includes export incentives and sale of obsolete assets.

Product Composition

  1. Driveline and axle are fast-growing, fuel-agnostic, future-proof products.
  2. Engine business is primarily heavy commercial vehicles and off-road.
  3. Product portfolio is simplified and focused for better profitability.

Strategic Considerations

  1. Phase 4 involves resource reallocation, aligning CAPEX to core customers.
  2. Strategic new order wins are in high-volume EV products.
  3. Operational efficiency initiatives include forging modernization and plant engineering.
  4. Strengthening supply chain and raw material planning systems is a key focus.
  5. Clean audit roadmap is progressing to improve governance and compliance.