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Menon Bearings Ltd

| Q3 FY26 Post Earnings Conference Call

BULLISH SENTIMENT

Report Source

20th Jan 26

Summary : Menon Bearings reported strong Q3 FY26 results driven by healthy OEM and export demand, with management projecting continued growth, margin expansion, and strategic cost efficiencies, despite raw material volatility and minor project delays.

Management Perspective positive : Management expressed pleasure with strong Q3 results, highlighted significant growth, and provided optimistic projections for future revenue, order book, and margin expansion. They also detailed proactive measures to mitigate risks.

Concall Report Analysis & Insights

Business Overview

  1. Q3 FY26 revenue grew 32% year-on-year to ₹76.9 crores, with PAT up 69% to ₹9.3 crores.
  2. Nine-month consolidated revenue reached ₹206.6 crores, an 18% year-on-year increase.
  3. OEM is the largest segment at 48% of Q3 revenues; exports contributed over 36%.
  4. Improved capacity utilization and operational efficiencies supported margin expansion.
  5. Menon Alkop showed stable performance, focusing on higher volume alloy products.

Future Growth Prospects

  1. Expect stable demand across OEM and export markets, with focus on sweating assets for profitable growth.
  2. Order book projected to reach ₹295 crores this year, ₹350 crores next year, and ₹425 crores in 2028.
  3. Brakes business is ramping up, targeting ₹1 crore monthly revenue soon, with new OEM discussions.
  4. Alkop capacity is planned to double from 1,440 to 2,880 in the next two years.
  5. Developing parts for EV companies through Menon Alkop, including motor covers and PTFE bushes.

Management Insights

  1. Q3 FY26 was a strong quarter with healthy demand and improved profitability.
  2. Major CapEx is behind us; focus is now on asset utilization and return ratios.
  3. Proactive steps are being taken to counter raw material price volatility and maintain margins.
  4. Strategic investments in solar power and automation will reduce costs and improve productivity.
  5. The company is actively pursuing new customers and expanding wallet share with existing ones.

Signs of Skepticism

  1. Management acknowledges potential 'dent' in margins due to raw material volatility, despite mitigation efforts.
  2. The dynamometer for the Brakes segment has faced delays, pushing back railway business ramp-up.
  3. Discussions with customers to shift to monthly price revisions are ongoing, not yet finalized for all.
  4. Some new business opportunities are still in the 'pipeline' or 'in discussion' phase, not 100% concrete.

Risk Factors

  1. Raw material price volatility, especially copper and steel, remains a concern.
  2. Potential adverse impact on margins due to increasing non-ferrous material prices.
  3. External factors like tariffs or global events could affect export business sustainability.
  4. Delay in dynamometer installation impacts railway business ramp-up timeline.
  5. Challenges in passing on full raw material cost increases to customers immediately.

Good To Know

  1. Completed 3.8 megawatt rooftop solar installations, saving ₹2.25 crores annually in electricity costs.
  2. Process improvements and raw material yield optimization expected to save ₹8-9 crores per year.
  3. Total CapEx for FY22-FY26 was ₹30 crores; an additional ₹20 crores is planned for the next two years.
  4. Transitioning export terms to 'ex-works India' to reduce external risks and improve cash conversion cycle from 180 to 30 days.
  5. John Deere is a major customer across its global divisions (USA, Europe, South America).

Key Drivers

  1. Strong export growth to US.
  2. New OEM customer additions.
  3. Brakes segment volume ramp-up.
  4. Cost savings from solar, automation.

Key Analyst Discussions

Competitive Environment

  1. Company's margins are higher than competitors due to manufacturing capabilities and focus on value-added products.
  2. Not directly comparable to aftermarket-focused competitors like Rane Brake and Sundaram Brake Linings.
  3. John Deere is treated as multiple new customers due to different vendor codes for global divisions.
  4. China Plus One policy is driving global customers, like John Deere, to source more from India.

Market Trends & Consumer Behavior

  1. Bimetal division is not impacted by EV shift as it focuses on HCV, LCV, tractors, and off-road vehicles.
  2. Menon Alkop is actively developing parts for electric vehicles, including for Tesla and Tata Motors.
  3. Stable demand environment is observed across OEM and export markets.
  4. The company is exploring new avenues in friction materials beyond HCV/LCV, including two-wheelers.

Financial Highlights

  1. Management expects to maintain 20% consolidated margins for current year, rising to 21-22% by 2028.
  2. Brakes segment margins are projected to increase from 12-13% to 17-18% next year with higher volumes.
  3. Cash conversion cycle for exports is expected to drop from 180 days to 30 days by shifting to ex-works.
  4. Total CapEx for this year is ₹15 crores, with an additional ₹20 crores planned for the next two years.
  5. Cost savings from solar power and process improvements are expected to be substantial.

Product Composition

  1. Current revenue mix: Bimetal 74%, Alkop 22%, Brakes 3%; Bimetal share expected to reduce to 65-68% next year.
  2. Conscious decision to part away with low value-addition components in Alkop's domestic business.
  3. Focus on improving product mix for better margins and value addition, especially in Alkop.
  4. Brakes and Alkop are expected to contribute more to the total revenue mix going forward.

Strategic Considerations

  1. Strong export growth is driven by new business with major US customers like Allison Transmission and Federal-Mogul DRiV.
  2. Automation and technical innovations aim to reduce manpower dependency and improve productivity.
  3. Prioritizing high-volume, high-margin parts for new business opportunities, selecting 4-5 items per month.
  4. US market remains the major focus for exports, but EU opportunities will be explored if lucrative.
  5. Management is restructuring Alkop's domestic business to focus on higher-margin products.